The Philippines, during the recent COP 21 Climate Change talks in Paris, called for heightened assistance when disastrous events come, as it is often the victim of devastating typhoons and adverse effects of climate shakes. While it is true that climate change had taken its toll in the archipelago, and there are methods to mitigate the effects of global warming, but there is still one phenomenon that nobody could stop nor global talks could easily counter – the El Niño phenomenon – and it is coupled to the current rise in the temperature brought about by global warming. The phenomenon, however, is not directly caused by global warming, weather experts pointed out. The phenomenon naturally transpired for the last hundreds of years – long before greenhouse gasses clouded the atmosphere and the climate had behaved abnormally – and there is an observable cycle of when and where it would occur. The cycles and patterns pointed out that the phenomenon is happening again, according to Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). “When you say El Niño it’s the large scale natural fluctuation of the global climate system, so when you say natural, what does that mean? So if it happens naturally, that means the last time it happened [El Niño] it is still the same [phenomenon], in the past 500 years it was the same, and the next 500 years it is possible that it would be the same [El Niño]. Thus when you say it is [a natural] global fluctuation, it may not be caused by climate change,” explained Jason Basconcillo, a weather expert of Pagasa, working in its climate watch arm, the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS). El Niño, the phenomenon affecting the country this year is one of the fiercest. Currently, brewing up in the Pacific Ocean and is threatening to dehydrate the Philippines. Climate models showed it will prevail for more than half a year. El Niño is the anomalous warming of the sea surface in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean. This drought-bringing phenomenon however does not happen exactly in the Philippines or any landmass in the Pacific Ring, it develops on parts of the Pacific Ocean, and the inhabitants of the landmasses are its victims. But how then this phenomenon is happening in the ocean but the effects are being felt on land? The winds traversing around the world carry its own characteristics, every wind that will pass through a country will define its weather for a specific period of time, according to CLIMPS. During El Niño, winds from the western equatorial hemisphere or Americas crossing through the stretch of the warming Pacific Ocean will collide with the winds coming from the Philippine side, resulting in a convergence. In a convergence, the western equatorial hemisphere winds that would suppose reach the Philippines and bring rains cannot pass through the Pacific Ocean, resulting in a delay in its passage. Eventually the winds carrying the rains will dump its precious contents over the Pacific Ocean instead of the Philippines – depriving the archipelago of its rainfall supply. The results are spikes of temperature that may stay for a while. “There is less rainfall because there is an increase of rainfall in the middle [Pacific Ocean],” Basconcillo said. Basconcillo clarified that the Philippine climate is classified only into two seasons, wet and dry, and its climate is mainly determined by the amount of rainfall it receives. Less rains, the longer the dry season. “With El Niño usually you will have above normal air temperature [higher temperatures], because you don’t have rains, there is nothing dampening your environment so no cooling effect, therefore it is hotter [temperatures],” Basconcillo said. The temperatures will shoot up by few degrees, but the prevalence of the phenomenon for quite some time may cause droughts or dry spells, according to the recent models of the Pagasa and its weather predicting arm, CLIMPS, it forecasted an extended dry season that will last until the second quarter of 2016. “Strong El Niño persists in the tropical pacific and is likely to strengthen at the end of this month extended to the following year,” said Basconcillo. Various weather agencies pegged at 100 percent the probability of an El Niño episode starting October this year until April the following year, in a consensus drawn from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), handed to the Pagasa. Additionally, Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its consensus to Pagasa: “Oceanic and atmospheric indicators have been persistently strong, comparable to the events of 1997–98 and 1982–83. International climate models suggest the peak in El Niño SSTs (sea surface temperatures) is likely to occur before the end of the year, then gradually ease in the first quarter of 2016. This year’s El Niño may rival the 2.4 degree Celsius rise on sea surface temperature during the 1997-1998 El Niño episode that brought the severest droughts in the country. Meanwhile, the Tokyo Climate Center pointed out: “El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific. It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the Northern Hemisphere spring.” Most models indicated a plus 1.5 degree Celsius temperature rise in the sea surface temperature, such increase is considered and labelled as “strong” El Niño. Strong El Niño episodes as observed from the past episode do bring dry conditions, which later on prevailed and swelled into dry spells and worse – droughts. Dry spell is prevailing in a region if it is experiencing below than normal amount of rainfall for three consecutive months. Drought, on the other hand, to its extent, happens if a region is receiving below than normal amount of rainfall for five successive months. Just last month, CLIMPS determined two provinces which are experiencing drought and seven experiencing dry spell. Come Christmas time, 21 provinces would be experiencing dry spells and two will still experience droughts. As the country welcome the first month of the New Year, 13 provinces would receive way below normal rainfall for three successive months, and 23 provinces would get below average rainfall for three consecutive months or dry spell. The full brunt of the heated winds and scarcity of rains that will bring the scorching heat will peak by the end of April. The phenomenon will dry out as much as 83 percent of the Philippines. A total of 67 provinces and cities in the Philippines are predicted to experience drought by the end of April. This includes the majority of Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Central Luzon, Northern Luzon and the Bicol Region. In Visayas, 13 provinces would experience drought and in Mindanao 17 provinces are likely to receive below normal average of rainfall. By the end of May, still half of the country would receive below than average rainfall, most of them in Luzon with 22 provinces affected by the drought, 10 in Visayas, and eight in Mindanao. Metro Manila would be saved from the drought, but key rice and crops producing provinces like Benguet, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zamabales, Nueva Ecija, Cavite and Rizal would still be affected by the drought. Only in June, the drought would subside and would only affect 12 provinces in the Philippines, according to the weather forecast by CLIMPS. The figures provided by the CLIMPS showed that as larger portions of the country is affected by the drought, those not affected by the drought would still feel the after-effects of the scarcity of rain. Majority of rice producing provinces will be affected by the drought which may threaten the water supply of both irrigated and rain-fed rice fields and consequently leave a question on the food security during those months. Multi-purpose dams that supply potable water, provide irrigation, and function as hydro-power plants would also be a concern during the dry spell and drought months, Basconcillo presented in the CLIMPS briefing room.
Dams Dams located in various regions in the country would likely be affected by the drought. Angat Dam that supplies water to most parts of Metro Manila is receiving below normal amount of rainfall that started last November and will last until February next year. The dry spell would continue to a drought as it would receive a dehydrating way below normal amount of rainfall for two consecutive months; the 4.5 mm of rainfall in March 2016 is way below the normal average of rainfall of 16.7 mm, and 14.8 mm of rainfall in April is much lower than the average rainfall of 28.9 mm. Meanwhile, the Ambuklao Dam, which is used for irrigation of the farm fields located in Central Luzon is already experiencing way below than normal amount of rainfall since November, it only gathered 16.8 mm of rainfall last month - 16.52 mm short of the expected 33.2 mm - and is predicted to only gather 11.7 mm of rainfall in December. Worse will come for the Ambuklao Dam as it will receive way below than normal rainfall starting January to March next year, and it was predicted to be sprinkled only with 22.6 mm of rainfall for three consecutive months which is below than the usual 77.9 mm of rain. Lastly, Magat Dam, received near normal average of rainfall in November, but is facing a steep decline in the amount of rainfall starting December this year until March next year. The scarcity in rainfall is expected in February and March next year as the dam supplying potable water will only get 45.1 mm of rainfall, which is millimeters short of the normal amount of rainfall pegged at 93.2 mm.
Dry Days On the other hand, the country will receive only sprinkles of rain as a majority of the regions are predicted to receive less than a milimeter of rain for not less than 20 days a month. National Capital Region this December is expected to have 26 to 31 dry days together with Cordillera Administrative Region, Region I, Region III, and Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. On January, the trend on the number of dry days would continue and would worsen in the coming months starting February. All of the regions, except region XIII, will experience an average of 25-30 dry days starting January until March next year. Averages of normal rainfalls vary from region to region and from time to time. Meanwhile, Pagasa is expecting one to three typhoons to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) until December this year, while three to seven typhoons are expected until June next year.
Temperature Less rains and warmer temperatures will deprive the Philippines of a comfortable temperature which will play a key part in farming, fishing and energy conservation, according to CLIMPS. In Metro Manila, temperatures are predicted to spike up as high as 38.6 degree Celsius in mid-May and mid-April next year, while the lowest temperatures predicted is at 31 degree Celsius. Temperatures could spike up to 41.5 degree Celsius in Lowlands Luzon by mid-April and mid-May next year. The lowest possible temperature is predicted to be in mid-December this year at 27.3 degree Celsius. Meanwhile, in Lowlands Visayas, maximum temperatures will peak by mid-February next year at 39.3 degree Celsius. In Lowlands Mindanao maximum temperatures may spike as high as 39.6 degree Celsius. In mountainous Luzon and Mindanao, temperatures would be the highest during mid-March at 30.3 degree Celsius and 36.2 degree Celsius by mid-April respectively, with a low of 25.3 degree Celsius in Luzon and 31.5 degree Celsius in Mid-January for mountainous Luzon and Mindanao.